Long Island: the gerrymander that backfired

Long Island is America's suburb: four whole House districts on one island, and a coin-flip electorate that both parties need.

In 2022 New York's Democrats drew themselves a dream map, with district lines reaching across Long Island Sound to dilute Republican voters. It never elected anyone: New York's own top court struck it down as an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander (Harkenrider v. Hochul), and a court-appointed special master, Jonathan Cervas, drew neutral lines weeks before the primaries.

On those neutral lines, below, the backfire arrived instantly: Republicans swept all four Long Island seats that November, among them one George Santos, whose invented life story got him expelled from Congress within a year.

The island has been the front line ever since: Tom Suozzi took back the Santos seat in early 2024, Laura Gillen flipped the 4th that fall, and the delegation now splits two to two. The party that tried to draw itself four seats ended up fighting for every one of them.

You are playing the Democrats, holding the map Albany wished it had kept. You have a four-point edge on the island: spread it carefully and win a majority of the four districts.

Biden 51.6%, Trump 47%. Nassau and Suffolk's combined 2020 presidential vote.

Long Island's four districts under the special master's map, shaded by the 2020 vote: no packing, no cracking, everything close. Maps this balanced are why the island now decides House majorities.

Long Island's four districts under the special master's map, shaded by the 2020 vote: no packing, no cracking, everything close. Maps this balanced are why the island now decides House majorities.

Harkenrider v. Hochul (American Redistricting Project)

New York's 3rd congressional district (Wikipedia)